Yes, it's early for this. But it looks like the El Nino system will dissapte. So we're starting to see Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes were at their highest February level on record last month, according to the UK Hadley Center. The MDR is between the coast of Africa and Central Americaand virtually all African waves originate in this region that account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When we have higher SSTs, we can anticipate increased tropical activity.

 

 

According to the U.S. Census 2010 website, they began delivery of printed census forms to every resident in the United States on March 1, 2010. The only way to complete the census is by filling in the form using pen and ink; in some instances, census takers will be visiting households to complete the form face-to-face. It is important to understand that the U.S. Census Bureau will not, under any circumstances, be providing an online option to complete the 2010 census form.

The Census Bureau does NOT conduct the 2010 Census via the Internet

The Census Bureau does not send emails about participating in the 2010 Census

The Census Bureau never:

-        Asks for your full social security number

-        Asks for money or a donation

-        Sends requests on behalf of a political party

-        Requests PIN codes, passwords or similar access information for credit cards, banks or other financial accounts.

You are encouraged to take the following measures to protect yourself from scammers:

- Review available information about the 2010 U.S. Census on the website.

- Familiarize yourself with what information the U.S. Census Bureau is collecting on the census form.

- Do not follow unsolicited web links of attachments in email messages.

- Refer to the Recognizing and Avoiding Email Scams (pdf) document for more information on avoiding email scams.

- Refer to the Avoiding Social Engineering and Phishing Attacks document for more information on social engineering attacks.

You can help the victims of countless crises, like the recent earthquake in Haiti, around the world each year by making a financial gift to the American Red Cross International Response Fund, which will provide immediate relief and long-term support through supplies, technical assistance and other support to help those in need. The American Red Cross honors donor intent. If you wish to designate your donation to a specific disaster, please do so at the time of your donation by mailing your donation with the designation to the American Red Cross, P.O. Box 37243, Washington, D.C. 20013 or to your local American Red Cross chapter. Donations to the International Response Fund can be made by phone at  1-800-REDCROSS  1-800-REDCROSS or  1-800-257-7575  1-800-257-7575 (Spanish) or online at www.redcross.org.

Because of its popularity, the internet has become an ideal target for advertising. As a result, spyware, or adware, has become increasingly prevalent. When troubleshooting problems with your computer, you may discover that the source of the problem is spyware software that has been installed on your machine without your knowledge.

 

 

 
Emergency Management and Response
Information Sharing and Analysis Center
(EMR-ISAC)
INFOGRAM 49-09    December 17, 2009

Suspicious Holiday Cards, Letters, and Packages

During this holiday season, it is reasonable to expect that some Emergency Service Sector (ESS) departments and agencies may receive cards, letters, and packages recognizing the service and sacrifices of local emergency responders.  Unfortunately, the possibility exists that the season’s greetings could contain explosives, chemicals, or biological agents.  Although there is no known threat against ESS organizations, the Emergency Management and Response—Information Sharing and Analysis Center (EMR-ISAC) shares the following typical characteristics of mail and packages that should trigger suspicion:

·         Sent by an unexpected or an unknown person or source.
·         Contain no return address or an address that cannot be verified as legitimate.
·         Have protruding wires or aluminum foil, strange odors or stains.
·         Show a city or state in the postmark that does not match the return address.
·         Are of unusual weight given their size, or are lopsided or oddly shaped.
·         Marked with threatening language.
·         Labeled in an inappropriate or unusual manner.
·         Include excessive postage or packaging material, such as masking tape and string.
·         Contain misspellings or common words.
·         Addressed to someone no longer with the organization or used other outdated information.
·         Titled incorrectly or without a name.
·         Are not addressed to a specific person.
·         Have hand-written or poorly typed addresses.

See the following web sites for additional information about suspicious mail:

·        Federal Bureau of Investigation
·        Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (PDF, 241 Kb)

Here in Florida we're expecting record or near record high temperatures today. But for much of the US, winter weather presents a significant current hazard.

Winter weather too often catches people unprepared. Researchers say that 70 percent of the fatalities related to ice and snow occur in automobiles, and about 25 percent of all winter related fatalities are people that are caught off guard, out in the storm.

Being aware of the hazards and informed about conditions for your area goes a long way in keeping you safe!

Some simple winter weather tips:

• Stay indoors during a storm.
• If you must go outside, layers of clothing will keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Wear gloves or mittens and a hat to prevent loss of body heat. Cover your mouth to protect your lungs.
• Walk carefully on snowy, icy sidewalks.
• If you shovel snow, be extremely careful. It is physically strenuous work. Take frequent breaks. Avoid overexertion – heart attacks from shoveling heavy snow are a leading cause of deaths during winter.
• Avoid traveling by car, but if you must, keep the gas tank full for emergency use and to keep your fuel line from freezing. Let someone know your destination, the route you are taking, and when you expect to arrive. If your car gets stuck along the way, help can be sent along your predetermined route.
• If you do get stuck, stay with your car. Do not try to walk to safety. Tie a brightly colored cloth to the antenna for rescuers to see. Start the car and use the heater for about ten minutes every hour. Keep the exhaust pipe clear so fumes don’t back up in the car. Leave the overhead light on when the engine is running so you can be seen. As you sit, move your arms and legs to keep blood circulating and stay warm. Keep one window open to let in air.
• After the storm, avoid driving until conditions have improved. Listen to local radio and television stations for updates. Help a neighbor who may require special assistance, especially families with infants, the elderly, and people with disabilities.

 

The Atlantic is quiet again. So back to "normal" business of all hazards, all the time.

We're busy with pandemic plans, hazard mitigation plans, and various planning efforts.  We'll be posting some interesting items related to mitigation planning over the next few weeks.

Stay safe.....

0630CST Nov 9th - New Orleans: I'm in New Orleans working on a hazard mitigation project and watching "Hurricane" Ida. It looks like Ida is being heavily impacyed by shear. As it moves north, she'll also enter cooler waters. As of the 7am NHC update, Ida had 80MPH winds and that may have been generous.

As Ida shifts east and north, New Orleans will be on the weak side of the storm. Some possibility of tropical force winds exists for the city but this is expected to be a rain event. 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected here in the next 18 hours or so. This should be easily handled by the city's drainage system. Some flooding and storm surge is still expected on the coast and in areas outside of the hurricane protection zones.  So, I'll be wet and windy later today and tonite but actual impact is expected to be minimal.

More later.

Sunday Nov 8th, 2009 - 0700: 
Ida, now a 90MPH hurricane moving NW at 12MPH, has a complex future. Due to very complex weather patterns in the Gulf, Ida's exact future is almost a mystery novel. As Ida, enters the Gulf, conditions will become more hostile and then increasingly hostile in the 48 hour timeframe with cooler waters and increased shear. In that timeframe, Ida should lose her tropical characteristics and transition to extratropical. We are expecting tropical force winds and strong rains along the Gulf Coast in 48 to 72 hours. Up to 3 inches of rain in some places. However, as Ida will likely be extratropical at that point, local National Weather Service offices will be handling the watches and warnings. The models are split over the exact path. Several models (including the ECMWF) shows an extratropical system tracking across the southeastern US, the GFS model leaves the remnants of Ida behind a low and absorbed by a large frontal system over the SE US. Watching Ida will prove interesting and an opportunity to see some complex weather patterns at work.

All those along the northern Gulf Coast need to monitor local weather watches and warnings. Be wary of flood prone areas and prepare to leave if needed. As always, have your "go" bags ready and stay prepared.

 

 

11:15pm update: A buoy reading showed a 74MPH sustained wind...meaning Ida is again a hurricane. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is flying a mission now. There is some support in the models that Ida may be stronger than expected. 

Nov 7, 2009 10pm: As of the 10pm NHC update, Ida is a 70MPH tropical storm heading NNW at 12MPH.  Ida's future is complex as the Gulf environment is quite a conglomeration of weather.  Ida is being steered between a trough over Mexico and a mid-level ridge over the southeastern US.  Most of the models bring Ida to the Florida panhandle but as an extratropical cyclone and then push it to the southeast as it gets absorbed by a massive cold front. Strong winds and rain should hit the gulf coast Monday nite thru Wednesday. People along the Gulf Coast should exercise caution in flood prone areas and monitor local official information.

For more fun, I'll be in New Orleans as Ida tracks by. it should be wet and windy....