0630CST Nov 9th - New Orleans: I'm in New Orleans working on a hazard mitigation project and watching "Hurricane" Ida. It looks like Ida is being heavily impacyed by shear. As it moves north, she'll also enter cooler waters. As of the 7am NHC update, Ida had 80MPH winds and that may have been generous.

As Ida shifts east and north, New Orleans will be on the weak side of the storm. Some possibility of tropical force winds exists for the city but this is expected to be a rain event. 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected here in the next 18 hours or so. This should be easily handled by the city's drainage system. Some flooding and storm surge is still expected on the coast and in areas outside of the hurricane protection zones.  So, I'll be wet and windy later today and tonite but actual impact is expected to be minimal.

More later.

Sunday Nov 8th, 2009 - 0700: 
Ida, now a 90MPH hurricane moving NW at 12MPH, has a complex future. Due to very complex weather patterns in the Gulf, Ida's exact future is almost a mystery novel. As Ida, enters the Gulf, conditions will become more hostile and then increasingly hostile in the 48 hour timeframe with cooler waters and increased shear. In that timeframe, Ida should lose her tropical characteristics and transition to extratropical. We are expecting tropical force winds and strong rains along the Gulf Coast in 48 to 72 hours. Up to 3 inches of rain in some places. However, as Ida will likely be extratropical at that point, local National Weather Service offices will be handling the watches and warnings. The models are split over the exact path. Several models (including the ECMWF) shows an extratropical system tracking across the southeastern US, the GFS model leaves the remnants of Ida behind a low and absorbed by a large frontal system over the SE US. Watching Ida will prove interesting and an opportunity to see some complex weather patterns at work.

All those along the northern Gulf Coast need to monitor local weather watches and warnings. Be wary of flood prone areas and prepare to leave if needed. As always, have your "go" bags ready and stay prepared.

 

 

11:15pm update: A buoy reading showed a 74MPH sustained wind...meaning Ida is again a hurricane. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is flying a mission now. There is some support in the models that Ida may be stronger than expected. 

Nov 7, 2009 10pm: As of the 10pm NHC update, Ida is a 70MPH tropical storm heading NNW at 12MPH.  Ida's future is complex as the Gulf environment is quite a conglomeration of weather.  Ida is being steered between a trough over Mexico and a mid-level ridge over the southeastern US.  Most of the models bring Ida to the Florida panhandle but as an extratropical cyclone and then push it to the southeast as it gets absorbed by a massive cold front. Strong winds and rain should hit the gulf coast Monday nite thru Wednesday. People along the Gulf Coast should exercise caution in flood prone areas and monitor local official information.

For more fun, I'll be in New Orleans as Ida tracks by. it should be wet and windy....

 

 

 

Nov 6th, 2009 - 0700: Ida is now a 35mph tropical depression. She'll reemerge into the Gulf with some opportunity for strengthening. Most of the Gulf coast from coastal Louisiana to Florida's west coast is now in the cone of uncertainty.

Conditions above 20N latitude are fairly hostile for development. If Ida stays far enough south to gain strength before she moves N/NE, she'll stand a small chance of development.

Meanwhile all those on the Gulf Coast need to watch Ida and stay prepared.

 

 

Nov 5th, 2009 - 0700:  We have the third hurricane of the 2009 season with Ida about to landfall in Nicaragua. Ida will deliver very heavy flooding rains, winds, and mudslides to the area.  The storm is then expected to be over land up to 3 days before heading back into the Caribbean to the north as a much weaker system. The models are starting to push Ida to the east...over water. Some of the models curve the system towards the west coast of Florida while other models head to towards the Louisiana coast. The key to Ida's future will rest on her interaction with land and water depending on her exact path.

Ida has sustained winds of 75mph and is moving NW at 7mph.

October 7th, 2009 - Henri is sticking around a bit. Though in hostile waters for much development, Henri may reach Tropical Depression strength before shear turns it into a remnant low in the next 48 hours. Henri is currently 460 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with near 50MPH winds and moving west at 14MPH. Weakening is expected tonite as shear takes its toll.

October 6th, 2009 - The low pressure system 525 miles east of the Leeward Islands is getting more organization. We will see tropical Storm Henri from this system with the 5pm NHC update. Model runs are taking this system into the Caribbean.  General conditions are NOT favorable for significant development and we generally expect henri to become a remnant low by Wednesday evening. We'll be watching this one over the next 24 hours.

October 5th, 2009 - Yes the 7th named storm of the year is Tropical Storm Grace and she is 585 miles Northeast of the Azores. She's moving fast, 28-31mph with nearly 70mph winds. Over the next 24 hours Grace will likely be absorbed by a large non-tropical low pressure system that dominates the northeastern Atlantic. No threat to land is likely though it may be a wet day in the UK.

TD8 has dissapated into a disorganized area of of showers and thunderstorms about 650 miles west-nortwest of the Cape Verde Islands. There is some (low) potential for regeneration of the system but strong upper-level winds will act against it.

In general, the Atlantic is looking quiet.

5pm With the 5pm NHC update we now have TD #8 with 35mph winds moving NW at 14mph. With shear expected to increase in 12 hours and a upper level trough in 48 hours, most models see little possibility of strengthening. The current forecast models expect dissipation in 48 hours.

1pm There is an NHC "Code Red" (>50% potential for development) system about 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands (99L). The shower activity in this system is getting better organized and we could see a tropical depression form late Friday or early Saturday. However, in the 24-48 hour timeframe, the system will enter a more hostile environment. Give the upper and mid level atmospheric patterns, the system will either be ripped apart or be steered into the mid-Atlantic ridge and remain out in the deep Atlantic. Either way, no impact to land is expected for now.

We're still watching the remnants of Fred, centered about 475 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas.  A recon mission is scheduled to fly this later today (saturday). Still a low (<30%) probability of development.

We have a "Code Red"  (>50%) system 1200 miles east on the Windward islands. This system is getting better organized and may become a tropical depression. With high pressure ridging in place over the US, as this develops it will likely head on a more northern track. Too soon to tell...we'll wait for some better models.

Then we have another small area just northeast of the Cape Verde islands. Though it is getting organized, it will be moving through a hostile environment and will likely not develop.

The tropical Atlantic is still unusually quiet for September....but it is not silent.  Two watch areas this friday. One in the Carribbean stands a low chance of development due to hostile conditions. And yes...this one is still the remnant of Fred!

The other system is tagged as "Code Orange" by the NHC (30% to 50% chance of development). It is still 950 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands and conditions are only marginally favorable for development.

so we'll be watching these over the weekend.