Sept 6th, 2010 - September 10th is the statiscal peak of the atlantic hurricane season. And contrary to our early season expectations, it may be a very quiet peak.

Earl retired to the hurricane graveyard, Gaston looked like it was returning but today looks like an open wave.  We have Hermine making landfall along the Mexico/Texas border possible as amarginal hurricane. The large wave coming off Africa yesterday has no further chance to develop. Gaston still needs to be watched but overall the Atlantic basin is returning to a widespread shear pattern that will hamper development.

We do see some more waves coming off Africa over the next few days. There may be some chance of development with these. But so far, the Atlantic is looking quiet again.

August 31, 2010: Busy, busy day in the tropics. Danielle is gone to the cold north Atlantic.

Earl battered the Caribbean and as it turns north/northwest it will likely bring tropical force winds from the Carolinas to parts of Cape Cod. The likely track keeps it offshore. Earl is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 135mph winds. The east coast of the US can expect some significant offshore currents and riptides as well. Earl may well make for a messy Labor Day holiday weekend.

 

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Fiona is moving WNW at 24MPH and 40MPH sustained winds. Fiona may get caught in Earl’s wake. She will make that northwest turn; the question is how far west will she get. Though Fiona will not develop much, and some models suggest that she may dissipate, the eastern Caribbean needs to watch her.

 

Then far to the east, we have a new system, so far called 98L. The models are not calling for much development out of this system but a wave behind that coming off the African Coast may be of more concern. The patterns are shaping up to be conducive for those long track Cape Verde storms making a westward heading to the US coast. It is the time of year to be especially watchful….and prepared.

 

 

August 30th, 2010: Well, we're busy in the Atlantic now with 3 active systems. Danielle is still a marginal hurricane but well on her way to the hurricane graveyard.

Earl is on his way to beome a major hurricane. With 110MPH winds, Earl is WNW at 14MPH. This morning Earl is just offshore to the north of Anguilla,  but close enough to have some impact, The forecast track takes Earl east of the Bahamas and then off the coast of North Carolina by Friday. After that Earl curves north and east. Earl will make for some rough weather along the east coast with strong waves and rip currents.

Off to the east we also have 97L...soon to be called Fiona. This is likely a weaker system and could take a more westerly track. The Leeward Islands will need to watch this.

Aug 26th - 0600: Now it looks like hurricane season as we have two active storms in the tropics, Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl.

Danielle is a little stronger this morning with 105MPH winds. She's moving NW at 16MPH and heading to the North Atlantic hurricane graveyard. The high pressure system in the atlantic snf over the US is steering this storm via a break between them. She'll be no threat to anyone but fish. Danielle may yet strengthen into a major hurricane.

Earl is also a bit stronger with 45MPH winds and moving WNW at 16MPH. The high pressure system steering Danielle will also affect Earl. A shift is expected and Earl will likely gor further west before he too,recurves to the north. Bermuda may need to watchEarl as do the more Western Caribbean Islands. But the odds (and the models) favor a miss.

These patterns will hold for a few more days into September. After that things are expected to change. A new system now coming off the coast of Africa may yet pose a threat to the US East Coast but it's too early to tell.

We'll be watching and always recomend that you all stay informed.

 

 

Aug 23rd, 2010 @ 2100 - Now Hurricane Danielle....she has 75MPH winds and is moving WNW at 17MPH. She's destined to be a fish spinner but is expected to reach major hurricane strength soon.

The system we saw behind her may soon bring us Earl...for now it is 96L. Early model show this system following Danielle's track heading into the hurricane graveyard. No threat to land is expected.

Aug 23, 2010 - The tropics are heating up with Tropical Storm Danielle.
As of 0500 today, Danielle has sustained 60MPH winds and is moving WNW at 14MPH.
Danielle is going through an area that will likely enhance some development and most models
forcast at least a minimal hurricane in the next 24-36 hours, if not sooner.

Aug 16, 2010 - Conditions are becoming slightly more favorable in the tropical Atlantic and we are seeing some fairly impressive waves coming off the coast of Africa. This is typical for a mid-August pattern. As we get to the height of the season (August thru October), the limiting factors for development will be shear and the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

Remember Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and about 80% of tropical storms and hurricanes develop during August, September, and October.  In a typical year, 11 named storms develop and 6 of these become hurricanes.  On average, some portion of Florida is affected by at least one named storm every other year, a hurricane every 3 years, and a major hurricane every 6-7 years. So stay prepared and keep alert.

 

Aug 12 - With the demise of TD5 there is not much to look at in the GOM or tropical Atlantic. There is an impressive dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over much of the Atlantic and a deep upper level low over the Central Atlantic. Also some significant shear thru the GOM and along the Atlantic coast. These conditions will hinder any development for a while. Still some of the (unreliable) long term models have some stuff spinning up. I doubt it will be anything soon.

Today we are watching a low pressure area about 650 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The system is getting a little better organized this morning and conditions are becoming more favorable for some slow development. Current models indicate that this system will remain out to sea and pose no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Colin is very ragged this morning and is turning to the north-northwest. It will miss Bermuda but the island will feel some effects. Colin will likely lose tropical storm status today as it continues to fall apart.

 

Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic is pretty quiet.

 

 

With the remnants of Colin churning in the Atlantic,the basin is relatively calm. Colin may regenerate according to some of the models but the Bermuda high will likely push the system to the north Atlantic....IF it regenerates.

The Colorado State's (Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach) season predictions were updatedon Aufust 4th. They are unchanged thus far with 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher).  We are still to face the height of the season. Remember the statiscal height for the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10th. So we mayhave some very busy weeks ahead of us.

The GFS model shows a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on the 4th will develop into a tropical depression early next week. No other models are pointing at this so far.

Most of the long-range models indicate the potential for activity after August 15. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and the shifting Bermuda high and SAL (Saharan Air layer) over the Atlantic is starting to favor increased storm development.

These long range models and predictions are not tremendously accurate but it pays to stay aware and stay prepared.