August 31, 2010: Busy, busy day in the tropics. Danielle is gone to the cold north Atlantic.

Earl battered the Caribbean and as it turns north/northwest it will likely bring tropical force winds from the Carolinas to parts of Cape Cod. The likely track keeps it offshore. Earl is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 135mph winds. The east coast of the US can expect some significant offshore currents and riptides as well. Earl may well make for a messy Labor Day holiday weekend.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Fiona is moving WNW at 24MPH and 40MPH sustained winds. Fiona may get caught in Earl’s wake. She will make that northwest turn; the question is how far west will she get. Though Fiona will not develop much, and some models suggest that she may dissipate, the eastern Caribbean needs to watch her.

Then far to the east, we have a new system, so far called 98L. The models are not calling for much development out of this system but a wave behind that coming off the African Coast may be of more concern. The patterns are shaping up to be conducive for those long track Cape Verde storms making a westward heading to the US coast. It is the time of year to be especially watchful….and prepared.

Earl is on his way to beome a major hurricane. With 110MPH winds, Earl is WNW at 14MPH. This morning Earl is just offshore to the north of Anguilla,  but close enough to have some impact, The forecast track takes Earl east of the Bahamas and then off the coast of North Carolina by Friday. After that Earl curves north and east. Earl will make for some rough weather along the east coast with strong waves and rip currents.

Off to the east we also have 97L...soon to be called Fiona. This is likely a weaker system and could take a more westerly track. The Leeward Islands will need to watch this.

Danielle is a little stronger this morning with 105MPH winds. She's moving NW at 16MPH and heading to the North Atlantic hurricane graveyard. The high pressure system in the atlantic snf over the US is steering this storm via a break between them. She'll be no threat to anyone but fish. Danielle may yet strengthen into a major hurricane.

Earl is also a bit stronger with 45MPH winds and moving WNW at 16MPH. The high pressure system steering Danielle will also affect Earl. A shift is expected and Earl will likely gor further west before he too,recurves to the north. Bermuda may need to watchEarl as do the more Western Caribbean Islands. But the odds (and the models) favor a miss.

These patterns will hold for a few more days into September. After that things are expected to change. A new system now coming off the coast of Africa may yet pose a threat to the US East Coast but it's too early to tell.

We'll be watching and always recomend that you all stay informed.

The system we saw behind her may soon bring us Earl...for now it is 96L. Early model show this system following Danielle's track heading into the hurricane graveyard. No threat to land is expected.

Remember Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and about 80% of tropical storms and hurricanes develop during August, September, and October.  In a typical year, 11 named storms develop and 6 of these become hurricanes.  On average, some portion of Florida is affected by at least one named storm every other year, a hurricane every 3 years, and a major hurricane every 6-7 years. So stay prepared and keep alert.

Tropical Storm Colin is very ragged this morning and is turning to the north-northwest. It will miss Bermuda but the island will feel some effects. Colin will likely lose tropical storm status today as it continues to fall apart.

Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic is pretty quiet.

The Colorado State's (Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach) season predictions were updatedon Aufust 4th. They are unchanged thus far with 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher).  We are still to face the height of the season. Remember the statiscal height for the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10th. So we mayhave some very busy weeks ahead of us.

The GFS model shows a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on the 4th will develop into a tropical depression early next week. No other models are pointing at this so far.

Most of the long-range models indicate the potential for activity after August 15. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and the shifting Bermuda high and SAL (Saharan Air layer) over the Atlantic is starting to favor increased storm development.

These long range models and predictions are not tremendously accurate but it pays to stay aware and stay prepared.