2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Analysis
June 1st marks the start of the Atlantic Tropical Hurricane season which runs thru November 30th. At the start of the hurricane season, ntb group is happy to provide our seasonal analysis and information about what we can expect.
Our expectations of a quiet season have dissipated a bit due to the likely lack of a significant El Nino formation. NOAA forecasters and scientists are looking a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
The outlook reflects NOAA's expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
"The Gulf of Mexico coast, especially central and eastern areas including all of Florida, will be the greatest areas of concern for direct and indirect impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes during the 2017 season," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
For June and July, the area likely for development will be the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. As the sea surface temperatures rise thru the summer, the tropical Atlantic fires up with storm systems coming off the African Coast, known as Cape Verde storms, posing the greatest risk by late August and thru September.
There is still a lot of uncertainty in the early forecast. Tropical Storm Risk's (TSR) early predictions anticipates that hurricane activity in 2017 will be about average compared both to the long-term norm and to the recent 2007-2016 10-year norm.
The uncertainty and differences among various forecasts are all about whether El Niño conditions will develop, how strong the will be, and how warm the tropical North Atlantic will be in August-September.
As always, ntb group will post analysis and active systems to our social media and website.
Most importantly, remember that it only takes one! Be prepared: Make a kit, Have a plan and stay informed.
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