June 20th, 2017 - Tropical Update


Today we are watching Tropical Storm Bret and the “potential” tropical cyclone three.

Bret is moving into the southeast Caribbean Sea at 21 MPH with 45 MPH winds. This morning Bret is well organized but lacks defined banding features on radar. The system is interacting with the coast of Venezuela today so strengthening is unlikely.  Bret should start to weaken in the next 24 hours as it encounters some strong southwest shear from a strong upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea. Models are closing in on the system and most dissipate it by Thursday or Friday.

For the moment, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba.


Next up is Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.  This system is looking better organized over the central Gulf of Mexico but has minimal strong organized convection at its center.  The system is moving northwestward around a deep layer ridge over the western Atlantic and Florida. The models strengthen this ridge and turn the system more westward in the next 36 hours. The exact track of this system is less important than the heavy rains it will bring to the region. Some 6 to 10 inches of rain will likely impact parts of the Gulf Coast around New Orleans over the next 72 hours and 4 to 6 inches from the Florida Panhandle and the Louisiana and Texas coastal area. Some strengthening is possible before landfall along the Gulf Coast sometime early Thursday.



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